May 7, 2020

Reality is never wrong

Short form:
Your model of reality can be wrong. But reality can never be wrong.
Listen carefully the next time you hear anyone (especially you) say that something “should not have happened” or “is crazy” or “makes no sense.”
These are just ways of saying that “my model is right and reality is wrong.”
You are batshit crazy if you insist that your model is right and reality is wrong.
Sorry. Nope.
Reality is the standard against which models are judged.
Your model is not the standard against which reality is judged.
H/T to Adam Robinson for that insight.
Long form (because this is important, and I’m trying to retrain myself)
If you believe the world operates in an orderly way according to the laws of physics, say—even if it’s probabilistic rather than deterministic—the world is the way it is because that’s what the laws + initial conditions say. So if the world doesn’t behave the way you expect, it’s your model of reality that’s wrong (does not include all the consequences of physical law) and if you say ‘what’s happening is crazy’ you’re saying, in effect “my model is right, and the idea of laws of physics is wrong.” That’s kind of nuts.
If you believe that the world operates in an orderly way—but that God sometimes jumps in and overrides the rules—the world still can’t be nuts. It’s the way it is because that’s the way God wants it. Either you don’t understand God, or She doesn’t know what She’s doing. Sorry, I’m betting on God. Again, in effect, you’re saying: “My model is right, and God is wrong.” Also kind of nuts.
To anyone who asserts that you can escape by deciding, “your mental model is that the world is nuts,” sorry, but that’s nuts. If “the world is nuts” is your model, does that mean that sensible things make no sense? Or does it mean that anything that happens is allowed by your model? In either case, your model is useless. Choosing a useless model is kind of nuts. Even a wrong model is sometimes right, but a useless model is—well, useless.
Any time that world seems nuts, it’s because your model of the world does not help you understand how what has actually happened should have happened.
But it always should have happened because it did happen.
The error is in your model, not the universe.
The correct response to the world behaving in unexpected ways is: “My model is wrong.”
You should, at a minimum, correct your model by changing your Bayesian priors, and at a maximum throw the model out in favor of one that predicted the world as well as your model (aggregate score, not every particular) and also predicted what actually happened that your model mispredicted.

May 3, 2020

The posting habit

It’s May 3rd in Maine, though May 2nd, near the International Date Line, my notional location as far as 750words.com is concerned. My draft last night was about 350 words long before I edited it, and I’ve got an hour to get to 750.
It’s not quite 6:00 AM where my body’s at, and 10:56 PM in my 750words nominal location, and that gives me an hour to write another 300 words, now.
I’ll wrap up today, writing a little about Alex Guzey and James Clear. I was going to write about Tim Ferris, but I’ll save him for another time. And I’ll do deeper dives into all of them a bit later.
I’m an independent researcher with background in Economics, Mathematics, and Cognitive Science. My biggest intellectual influences are Scott Alexander and Gwern.
Anyone who cites Scott and Gwern is OK in my book.
He’s in my thoughts this morning (and yesterday, and the day before) because he wrote a blog post: Why You Should Start a Blog Right Now that reminded me why I should go back to blogging daily.
He’s also got a collection of Tweet-Sized Insight Porn, and if I’m not careful, I might spend the next hour reading it.
James Clear is the author of Atomic Habits: Tiny Changes, Remarkable Results. I heard him interviewed on Sam Harris Making Sense Podcast. It was not the first time I’ve heard him interviewed, but this one convinced me to put his book on my reading list and to mine it for knowledge.
Here’s a summary of the summary of his book from Four Pillar Freedom’s book summary.
If you’re having trouble changing your habits, the problem isn’t you. The problem is your system. Bad habits repeat themselves not because you don’t want to change, but because you have the wrong system for change.
Among the things that hooked me is his definition of habit as “solutions to problems we have to solve repeatedly,” his observation that habits are context-dependent, and his Four Laws of Behavior Change. Again from Four Pillar Freedom:
Any habit can be broken down into a feedback loop that involves four steps: cue, craving, response, and reward. The Four Laws of Behavior Change are a simple set of rules we can use to build better habits. They are (1) make it obvious, (2) make it attractive, (3) make it easy, and (4) make it satisfying.
Clear gives a further exposition on his blog, here and explains nicely how the “feedback loop” leads to the Laws:
So I finished my 750. And beyond that, I realized that I can improve the “blogging habit” I wrote about in the post Pay the price that I wrote yesterday. That’s to give myself a small psychological reward as I make each change in Grammarly. Cue, craving, response, reward.

Pay the price

Yesterday I published three posts, and another around 1 AM—technically today, but I’ll count it as yesterday. They were the first things I’d published in fifteen days. What changed?
The answer, I think, was facing my fears.
My mind tries to keep me safe by guiding me away from paths that lead to discomfort and keeping me on comfortable paths. Reading is comfortable. Writing is comfortable. Deciding to publish a post is the beginning of a road to discomfort.
The discomfort begins when I decide to start the process of publishing. The post’s not done, of course. It’s never done. I can always do more. So I’m basically giving up.
Then I have to run Grammarly to spell, and grammar check it. No joy in that.
Copy/pasting it into blogger isn’t hard, and not exactly uncomfortable, but there’s no pleasure in it, either.
Then I have to decide whether to tell my friends and family that I’ve published a post. If I tell them, I’m bragging. And they might not like it. Or they might not read it.
The only way to get a post—like this one—done is to accept discomfort as the price for producing something. Some Future Me might appreciate what I’ve created, but I’m the one that has to endure the discomfort.
Fortunately, I’ve made peace with Past and Future Me and no longer resent doing things for his sake.
Accept the unsatisfactoriness of life. I’ve learned that lesson—or ones a lot like it—before. Then I’ve forgotten them. Then I’ve had to rediscover the same lesson again.
What can I do to make this the last time that I have to rediscover it?
On my left arm, I’ve got a tattoo that says, “I’m not dead yet.” Maybe I need one for my right arm? If I did that, what would it say? LIfe is unsatisfactory? Memento more?
Adam Robinson, a guy I discovered recently, quotes Rudyard Kippling on an episode of Tim Ferris podcast. “If you did not get what you want, it’s a sign either that you did not seriously want it or you tried to bargain over the price.”
So maybe what I want on my right arm is “Pay the price.”
Maybe I’ll end up like Leonard Shelby, the guy in Memento) who has lost his ability to make new memories and has the things that he wants to remember tattooed.
What else would I tattoo?

May 2, 2020

Panic, over the hill

We all tell stories about ourselves. I do, anyway. We need them to make sense of ourselves and the world. I do, anyway.
We have more than one story. Faced with a set of circumstances, we tell ourselves the most helpful story. I do, anyway.
We tell ourselves stories that define who we are or that define who we are not. I do, anyway.
And there are stories that we don’t tell about ourselves. And sometimes those stories are the truest one.
Sometimes I’m afraid, and my stories account for that fact. But my stories didn’t account for how often and how completely I’ve been paralyzed by fear. How could I tell that story when in the moment I didn’t feel any fear? Anxiety, yes, sometimes. But not fear. Until I realized that behind every episode of anxiety, indecisiveness, procrastination, distraction is an ocean of fear.

We leave Alameda

Coronavirus was spreading, facilities were closing down, and the kids got together and decided we had better return to safety while we still could travel.
We’d planned to spend another week in Alameda, then two weeks visiting friends in California, returning home via Los Angeles. Instead, we got in the car on the morning of March 15 and headed home.
I have vivid memories of parts of that day: full-color stills and occasional moving images. The first area in the place where we stayed—packing up—cleaning up—taking out the trash. It’s raining. Now it’s drizzling. Now raining again.
We head to Trader Joe’s for supplies and the last-ditch effort to find Bobbi’s lost hearing aid. I check at the desk, then go the Safeway across the street to see if someone might have found it in the parking lot and turned it in. No luck. We’re in no hurry to get out of town, which turns out to be a mistake. Or maybe not, since an exciting story is better than a boring one.
We drive across the bridge and up through Sacramento. We stop for gas. I remember squeezing just $8.00 into the tank because for $8.00, I get a free coffee. I drink it as we eat the Trader Joe’s lunches we bought.
We continue up into the mountains. I see a sign. There’s a police checkpoint ahead. Trucks need to show that they’ve got chains. It makes no sense to me. The temperature is about 40.
And then it’s below 40, headed toward freezing. In my mind’s eye, recalling the story, I can see snow accumulating on the side of the road. We climb higher. The snow starts getting on the roadbed itself. By the time we hit the Monta Vista service area, there’s more than an inch on the ground. We pull in and go to the toilets; There’s a line. The walls are green. I can see the bathroom that I used.
People are chaining up. They say you can’t continue without chains. I know nothing about chains. I asked the gal behind the counter what they cost, “Anywhere from $70 to $300, depending,” she says. I have no idea what chains will cost for my car. I don’t know how I’d get them on.
I just want to get out of there!
In retrospect, I’m in an utter panic. But I don’t realize that until later.
We start to drive back down the mountain. There are no motels until we go back nearly to Sacramento. I book a Best Western for $100.
Bobbi doesn’t want to turn back, and we argue. In retrospect, I’m in full flight mode, in a panic. I ask Bobbi for a Lorazepam to calm me down. It helps. I’m not only calmer but able to realize how terrified I had been.
Terrified about what? It made no real sense. It was nothing more than fear of the unknown. Or of making a mistake.
At the service area, someone had told me there was a place that sold chains further down, so I decided to check in there. When I see it from the road, I’m unable to get to the exit without doing something dangerous, so we go to the next exit, turn around and go back up.
The place is closed. Panic is rising again, but before it takes hold, I see that there’s a gas station next door that sells chains. I go in with a photo of my tire that shows the number. The guy looks in a book to figure out what size chains I need and walks me through the process. He’s about to ring up the sale when he tells me that I probably want an ant spreader. I have no idea what it is, but what the fuck. He knows, and I don’t, so I buy the chains and the spreader. We head back up the mountain.
The Lorazepam keeps me calm, and as we drive, I’m able to see my panic as paradigmatic. This is not an isolated incident. It’s what always happens when I’m faced with consequential unknowns. I freeze. Panic. I realize that this happens a lot.
It takes me more than a month to realize that when that feeling starts to rise, I need to call for help.
But right now, I’m not panicked. I’ve got a plan, and I’m going to follow it.
This time we stop at the Gold Run rest area. There’s plenty of snow on the ground, and the guy had said putting chains on is not that hard. As I’m scratching my head, a guy with an off-the-roader pulls in, and I ask him if he can help me.
He says he’s done this millions of times, and explains the theory and practice, and teaches me how to do it as I kneel and lie on plastic bags trying to avoid getting soaked. I g both of the chains partly on, but I can’t close the deal, so I decide to see if someone at the gas station up the road can put them on for me. This turns to be a wise decision.
We pack up and drive to the gas station, and I wander around before finding a woman and her son in rain gear who teach me two important things that the guy at the rest area didn’t. First: the chains on my car go on the front wheels, not the rear ones. And second, putting chains on a vehicle is easy if you know this one weird trick: you find someone who knows what the fuck they are doing, and you pay them $30.00 to put them on.
Now the chains are on, and we’re ready to go. We get to the top of the ramp to the Interstate and see there’s a long line of cars standing on the ramp. A guy walking up the ramp says his car’s been there for an hour. I ask Google for an alternate route, and it tells me to drive across the road where some other cars are going. We join the convoy.
It’s getting dark now. There are a dozen cars heading overland on unplowed roads filling with snow. There’s a cop car up front, and he’s keeping everyone’s speed moderated. We twist, and we turn and climb and coast and finally get to another highway entrance, past the jam. I ask that state trooper if we can go on, and he says we’re good, and so we go.
It’s dark. Snow is falling and blowing. I’m doing about twenty. Signs say keep it under 35, which is a joke because the few times my speed approaches 35, I feel as though the wheels are going to vibrate off.
We stop at another gas station some miles up the road, and I have to wait in line for twenty minutes to get in and pee. Snow is piling up, and a couple of times, I’m afraid I’ll get stuck getting back on the highway, but I make it.
Driving the highway would be terrifying if I was able to feel any emotion. My hands are frozen to the wheel, my eyes frozen on the road ahead. I can’t see the roadway. But both sides of the roads are demarked by 8-foot poles meant to stick out of snowdrifts and as long as I’m between the poles on the left and the poles on the right I’ve got to be on the road, right? Somewhere on the road.
Traffic moves slowly for the most part, but from time to time, someone with a car built for those conditions will go flying by at forty or more. I keep a steady pace.
All I see in memory is a blend of real scenes of the day. White road. Red taillights. Black poles. And me gripping the wheel.
We go on and on and on and on and on. It’s all the same. And finally, my GPS tells me we’ve made it to Truckee, a small town just beyond the Lake Tahoe region.
We get off the highway and drive into town to get gas and find a place to sleep. But it’s Friday night and snowing, and people who like this kind of shit have taken all the moderately priced rooms. We can get a place for $350, or we can press on toward Reno, another hour driving practically blind. Why not? We head for Reno.
So back on the road. But first, some adventures going around the Donner Pass Road and Truckee Way and into a rec center, and around a traffic circle and finally onto the Interstate once again.
More miles in the dark. And we finally make it Reno. We’re in a Best Western attached to a casino. We circle the building, find a place to unload, then a place to park, and we’re in for the night.

TL;DR

I learned something about myself that I was peripherally aware of but avoided facing. And after I finally faced it—for a moment on that day—it took six weeks, until today, for me to decide that I needed to face it and face it and face it until it no longer governed my behavior.
So I wrote this for you, Future Me. And for anyone else it happens to help.

May 1, 2020

My portal to sanity

My quest to find portals has led me to work on creating one. I call it my Portal to Sanity. Perhaps you can create your own.

The need for a portal

This post, Building up to an Internal Family Systems model on Less Wrong is a trail marker through the landscape of ideas that led me to create my portal. Perhaps it’s a good place for you to start. Or for Future Me to start, if he loses his way.
The post was written by Kaj Sotala. He’s a 33-year-old Finish AI Researcher at the Future of Life Institute. I found him through this post, Mental Mountains, at SlateStarCodex. Scott says:
Kaj Sotala has an outstanding review of Unlocking The Emotional Brain; I read the book, and Kaj’s review is better.
That’s high praise: a guy writes a review of a book, and the review is better than the book.
I haven’t read the book, but I found Kaj’s review interesting. It was based on work on memory reconsolidation), a phenomenon that I’d read about before. The research proposed that after reactivating a memory, it needed to be rewritten into the nervous system, or the memory was lost. I read about a therapeutic modality called Coherence therapy based on this idea.
About a thousand words into his essay, Kaj references a post he wrote about Internal Family Systems. I jumped there and found he’d written an 8500-word essay. I’ve read it several times, and I am still learning from it.
Kaj is an AI researcher. He builds an architecture for “a robot which avoids catastrophes,” as an analog to a human being. I encourage you to heed his advice before considering his model or reading what I’ve written.
I think that, even if not completely correct, IFS is currently the best model that I have for explaining the observations that it’s pointing at. I encourage you to read this post in the style of learning soft skills - trying on this perspective, and seeing if there’s anything in the description which feels like it resonates with your experiences.
The short form of what I learned from him: we humans not only evolve behavior to try to avoid and to escape from catastrophes, we evolve behavior to help up avoid thinking about that behavior.

Dealing with catastrophes

Brains respond to catastrophes in two ways. They create behaviors that rescue the person from the catastrophe as fast as possible then generalize that. And they create behaviors to guide a person away from the situation that led to the catastrophe and then from the paths that led to the situation.
As we approach paths that seem similar, our minds begin to influence us away from those paths. Initially, the influences are subtle. As the similarity grows, we might become aware of the discomfort that leads us away. When the similarity reaches some threshold, the potential for danger arises is consciousness, and we are aware of avoiding the path.
But before that, it’s all unconscious. The fact that we are on a path similar to one that led to catastrophe influences the set of actions that might arise—or fail to arise.
We experience the illusion that we’re freely wandering an open landscape of possibilities, but we’re not as free as we think. We’re being influenced away from some paths and onto others with no idea that we’re being influenced.
When we wander onto a dangerous path, we’re influenced to escape without realizing that we’re being influenced.
Procrastination and ADD-type distraction are unconscious schemes for avoiding paths that might lead to discomfort. They’re driven by fear, but the fear is not experienced.
Worse, even thinking about the underlying causes of these kinds of dysfunctional behavior itself needs to be avoided.
Conditioning not only causes people to avoid paths similar to ones that once led to catastrophe, but it also causes people to avoid thinking about the avoidance behavior.

And IFS

Kaj interprets the IFS model as a catastrophe-avoidance system.
Every situation that causes a childish or adolescent or even an adult meltdown is a catastrophe. That spawns a subsystem designed to deal with the catastrophe.
The subsystem consists of an exile—a part traumatized by the catastrophe—a manager, a part dedicated to avoiding paths similar to the ones that led to the catastrophe—and a firefighter, a part designed to leave the catastrophe situation as rapidly as possible.
When life presents circumstances similar to paths that led to past catastrophes, managers go into action, subtly changing behavior to steer the person away from those paths.
When life presents circumstances similar to the catastrophe, firefighters go into action, causing behavior that leads away from the catastrophe.
Neither is conscious.
And even thinking about the mechanism, is itself to be avoided. This makes it hard for a person to self-improve without the help of a therapist or a sensitive friend who can keep them on the path that leads to insight.

Fear

When Bobbi and I crossed the Sierras, I realized the constancy of my fear.
It’s taken me all this time to face it.
I’m learning something important: how pervasive the fear that underlies so much of my incomprehensible behavior.
.
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God calling?

God calling?

I admit this is weird, but it’s important to me, and it’s been a theme throughout my life.
I was raised as a Jew. I was told I was one of the Chosen PeopleTM. I felt I had a special relationship with God.
Eventually, I lost my faith in the God I was taught about. I became an agnostic, and possibly an atheist. But I never lost my desire to connect.
That desire to connect manifests itself this way:
I sit down to write something, and I start to write a dialog with something that calls itself God.
Is it God?
Let’s suspend disbelief and imagine that there is a God.
Then would that God come to me and cause me to write things?
Why not?
Who are you to tell God what She can’t do?
Not me. Not you.
I have a theory about God that’s not inconsistent with something that might be God-like, inspiring me to write in Her name.

Later

So, when I wrote this, I started reading scripture. And then I stopped reading it. And I stopped writing. Because, as I said, I’m very conflicted about this.
I’ve got a bunch of unpublished conversations with “something that claims to be God,” And I don’t know what to do. Or something that’s typing this does not know what to do. Or is typing that it doesn’t know what to do.
Where is any of this coming from?
Things arise in consciousness and manifest themselves in the world.

References

Here’s a version of the Quran in English written by a Lebanese-American engineer, Talal Itani. I’ve written to him. Perhaps he’ll help me. Update: he kindly replied to my query. I dropped the ball. Maybe I will pick it up, inshallah.
This translation is probably more authoritative and heavily footnoted.
Here’s a compendium of translations.

Anger management

I’m sad. And I’m angry. At myself, and at God, or the Universe or something.
I have a wonderful life. I have a wife who I love and who loves me. We have enough money to meet our needs and many of our desires—certainly the important ones. We have kids and grandkids who are doing well. I have no “objective” reason to be sad or angry. And yet, I am.
It’s not that I’m not perfect. I don’t expect to be perfect. But I expect to be “better” than I am, and I’m not, of course. No one can be better than they are.
But it’s not that. I can accept that I’m only as good as I am. What I can’t accept is that I don’t think I’m improving. In fact, there’s clear evidence that I’m getting worse. Older. Older can be good, but it’s generally worse. The body gets weaker. It has more pain. Memory gets worse. There are things that I do that I think will forestall some of this, but I’m unsatisfied with the result.
Of course, as the Buddha says, life is unsatisfactory. So why should this be any different?
Logically, it “shouldn’t” It “should” be what’s expected and normal. But it’s not.
I’m sad. And angry.
Evolution—or God, take your pick—has made me what I am. And Evolution—or God—has fucked up. And I’m angry at Evolution—or God—for that.
“Why blame me?” says Evolution. “It’s not as though I made you this way on purpose. I don’t do anything on purpose. I just follow the Algorithm: replication with variation and selection. Whatever comes of that is what comes of that. Not my fault.”
“Aren’t you going to take responsibility for anything?” I ask.
“Nope,” says Evolution. “Replication. Variation. Selection. I take responsibility for doing that. If I stopped replicating, or varying, or selecting, you’d have grounds for complaint. But I’m doing my job. What happens as a result is not under my control. It might be the result of Random Activity. The Initial Conditions of the Universe might determine it. But that’s beyond my pay grade. I just do my job.”
“Then who is to blame?” I ask.
“Not me,” says Evolution. “Try God. Maybe God is responsible for Random Activity or the Initial Conditions of the Universe.”
“God doesn’t talk to me,” I said.
“Yes, I do,” God said.
I sighed. “I know,” I said. “Or at least I know that something claiming to be God talks to me. Maybe you’re not God. Probably not since I mostly believe that God doesn’t exist. And if God existed, I’m not sure that He or She would talk to me.”
“Does it matter?” God asked. “I am what I am. Maybe I’m God. Maybe I’m not. Does it matter?”
“It might,” I said.
“When?” Asked God.
“It would matter if I wanted something from you,” I said.
“What if you wanted something. How would it matter?”
“If you were God,” I said, “you could do anything.”
“Wrong,” God said, “I could do anything that I wanted to do. Right?”
“Yes,” I said.
“Well,” God said, “The fact is that I also can do anything that I want to do. I just don’t necessarily do what you want. You want a miracle, right?”
“A miracle would be nice,” I said.
“Fine,” God said. “I just caused something that anyone who was counting would say was a miracle.”
“What was it?” I asked.
“Ahh,” said God. “I was willing to perform a miracle, but I’m not willing to tell you what it was.”
“Then how can I believe it’s a miracle?” I asked.
“Same way as you believe anything else,” God said. “You just believe it. People say ‘seeing is believing,’ but that’s wrong. People see things and don’t believe what they’ve seen. And they believe things that they’ve never seen. For example, China. Do you believe there’s such a place as China.”
“I see where you’re going,” I said. “Or at least I think I see.”
I thought I saw. Whatever it was that I was ‘conversing’ with—whether a partition of my mind or something else—had the epistemic high ground. It might or might not be what it said it was, but there was no way to prove or disprove its assertions. If it said it was God and—importantly—if there were a God—then it might be God. It was highly unlikely that there was a God, and if there were one, it was unlikely that God was speaking to me through this medium, but not impossible.
“That which is not impossible is therefore possible,” said God. “And sometimes it’s inevitable.”

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